November 18, 2024 129 Comment

Surge! Just hit an all-time high!

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The stock price of TSMC has soared to a new historic high,capturing the attention of investors worldwide.

In pre-market trading on that day,TSMC's American depositary receipts surged significantly,gaining over 5% to exceed $219,surpassing the previous record of $211.93.Other semiconductor giants also enjoyed strong gains,with ASML rising by more than 4%,Micron Technology and AMD up by 2%,and NVIDIA climbing over 1%.

Many analysts anticipate that TSMC stands to benefit from the robust demand for artificial intelligence technologies.The company's advanced 3nm and 5nm process orders remain strong.Starting in 2025,TSMC plans to increase prices for its 3nm,5nm advanced processes,and CoWoS packaging technologies,which is expected to propel the company's stock performance to unprecedented heights this year.

Additionally,on that Monday morning,some small-cap robotics stocks in the U.S.market were once again generating buzz,with Nauticus Robotics seeing a rise of over 100%,Richtech Robotics gaining more than 40%,and Guardforce AI increasing by over 30%.

Stay tuned for a detailed report!

Robotics Stocks Surge

Last Friday,several small and mid-cap robotics stocks experienced a frenzy on the U.S.stock market,with Nauticus Robotics skyrocketing nearly 139% by the end of trading,Richtech Robotics surging over 69%,and Guardforce AI climbing close to 35%.On Monday morning,the momentum continued among robotics stocks,as Nauticus Robotics briefly increased by over 100%,Richtech Robotics was up more than 40%,Guardforce AI rose over 30%,and both iRobot and Serve Robotics gained over 15%.

In news,the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2025) is set to take place from January 7 to 10 in Las Vegas,with expectations that the number of participating companies,products,and registered attendees will reach new highs.CITIC Securities has noted that CES 2025 is attracting numerous companies to showcase their latest innovations.In the field of humanoid and bionic robots,many manufacturers will display complete machines and components for the first time.In the domain of service robots,including those for smart cleaning and gardening,major companies like UBTech,Ninebot,and Dreametech will present new products.Additionally,NVIDIA's significant updates and Jensen Huang's presentation are anticipated to provide insights into the annual AI roadmap,revealing their next-generation GeForce RTX graphics cards and the latest humanoid robot chip,Jetson Thor,at CES 2025.

Jensen Huang has remarked that AI is igniting a scientific revolution,ushering in a new computing era that will impact every scientific discipline and industry.Due to breakthroughs in physical AI,there is a surging investment in robotics technology,especially in heavy industries and manufacturing.With the rapid advancement of core cognitive and physical AI models,the era of robotics is believed to be on the horizon.Huang specifically pointed out that three types of robots are expected to achieve mass production: automobiles,drones,and humanoid robots.The market anticipates NVIDIA will launch its compact computing unit Jetson Thor for humanoid robots in the first half of the year,enabling robot manufacturers to train and apply complex AI,which could present a significant growth opportunity for NVIDIA.

In December of last year,robotics stocks in the U.S.market demonstrated strong performance.Leading service robot company Richtech Robotics surged nearly 265% in just one month,while software company Palladyne AI,specializing in robot system automation,saw its shares rise nearly 90%.Serve Robotics,which previously attracted NVIDIA's investment,increased by over 55% during the same period.

China International Securities has highlighted that the annual CES exhibition serves as a valuable reference for assessing industry dynamics and recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the robotics and AI eyeglasses sectors.In particular: 1) In robotics: Short-term catalysts are coming from NVIDIA.Notably,the major differences between NVIDIA's and Tesla's robots lie in sensor technology.Therefore,areas like 3D sensors and LiDAR are likely to see increased investments; 2) For AI eyeglasses: There will be benefits for model access companies,and there is expected to be additional software demand in operating systems and camera algorithms.

TSMC's Stocks Highly Valued

TSMC shares climbed 4.65%,pushing its market capitalization to a historic high of NT$29.17 trillion.On that day,TSMC’s American stocks maintained their strong trajectory,exceeding $219 and rising more than 5%,marking another historic high.Throughout 2024,TSMC’s American stocks have accumulated an almost 90% increase,with a further rise of 5.6% in the first two trading days of 2025.

The previous day,Goldman Sachs released a report raising its target price for TSMC American shares from $248 to $254,reiterating a “buy” rating and placing it on its “Conviction Buy” list.It also adjusted its target price for TSMC’s Taiwan stock from NT$1,320 to NT$1,355.Goldman Sachs anticipates a 29.4% revenue increase for TSMC in 2024 and another strong revenue growth year in 2025,projecting a year-over-year growth of 26.8%,primarily driven by the strong demand for advanced process nodes,particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence.

Moreover,Goldman Sachs believes that TSMC faces a more favorable competitive environment as Samsung and Intel encounter challenges transitioning to advanced process nodes.It expects that starting this year,prices for TSMC’s 3nm and 5nm chip nodes will rise in the mid to high single digits,and the prices for advanced packaging technologies (CoWoS) may increase by ten percent.With these price increases,Goldman Sachs estimates TSMC’s gross margin will rise to 59.3% this year,up from 56.1% last year.

Additionally,Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC is highly likely to revise its profit outlook and long-term annual revenue growth rate projections during its fourth-quarter earnings analyst meeting next Thursday.Goldman Sachs continues to expect TSMC's capital expenditure to increase from $30 billion last year to around $40 billion this year.

Morgan Stanley's latest report also forecasts a revenue growth for TSMC in 2025 ranging between 20% and 30%,maintaining its “buy” rating with a target price of NT$1,388.Morgan Stanley believes that TSMC's early-year performance guidance is typically conservative and tends to exceed expectations.They predict TSMC’s gross margin in 2025 will exceed 53%,with capital expenditures at $38 billion.

Earlier reports suggested that TSMC plans to adjust the prices of its 3nm and 5nm advanced processes and CoWoS packaging technology beginning January 2025.Specifically,the price increase for the 3nm and 5nm processes is projected to be between 5% and 10%,while CoWoS packaging is expected to see a rise of 15% to 20%.

Currently,investors are optimistic about TSMC's future prospects,as the company continues to lead in semiconductor innovation.Next week’s analyst meeting may further reveal TSMC's plans to leverage the growing AI market,potentially laying the foundation for sustained growth.

Guojin Securities' latest research report highlighted TSMC's groundbreaking advancements in silicon photonics technology,which integrates Optical-Electrical Co-Packaging (CPO) with advanced packaging technologies,upgrading performance from electrical signals to optical signals.The company plans to launch samples in 2025.TSMC’s光引擎 (COUPE) technology route is progressively enhancing photonic integration depth,providing efficient solutions for high-performance computing and AI applications.However,the current application of CPO technology is primarily concentrated on communications between switch nodes,making it difficult to facilitate large-scale interconnections within high-performance computing cards,particularly in terms of heat dissipation and wiring at the cabinet level.Nevertheless,the initial applications of CPO technology lay an important foundation for future higher integration photonic solutions and further consolidate TSMC's leading position in advanced packaging.

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